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direct limb reply indicated in the fiscal cliff talks but it is relevant to the larger issue of debt and deficits. the treasury can move money around in certain ways to extend the point where we actually reach a crisis for probably a couple of months. but this is an early warning sign. secondly, republicans in the house sent word to democrats in the senate, white house, it is your turn now. we acted to put off the fiscal cliff several months ago with a bill that without objection tend all of those bush tax rates into the future and would turn off the sequester by switching defense cuts over to domestic programs. democrats, of course have no intention of doing that. especially after president obama won the election. senate democratic leadership aide tells me that will remains a 50/50 chance we will get a mini deal temporary extension of tax cuts under $250,000 before the january 1 deadline when we would go over the cliff. will are no assurances of that. a white house official told me as president obama prepares to fly back to conduct and participate in the negotiations at the end, there has been n
direct limb reply indicated in the fiscal cliff talks but it is relevant to the larger issue of debt and deficits. the treasury can move money around in certain ways to extend the point where we actually reach a crisis for probably a couple of months. but this is an early warning sign. secondly, republicans in the house sent word to democrats in the senate, white house, it is your turn now. we acted to put off the fiscal cliff several months ago with a bill that without objection tend all of...
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now, the imf has suggested france should give itself more leeway to meet deficit targets. the fund's mission chief, edward gardener, said the country's target of 3% gdp was less pressing than cutting excess from public finances. the imf warned against more tax hikes, warning these could further restrict french economic growth. >>> and speaking exclusively to nbc, the ceo of alcatel-lucent says he expects french companies to continue to battle head winds. >> we will improve on structural inners, for sure. if you take a european approach, you certainly will see some of the benefits of the structural improvement that we made. but if you look two feet on the ground, i think 20 is 13 will not be substantially better than 2012. >> what about your business? >> i think what you saw in 2012 was that the u.s. market was very strong. europe was weak. china was very weak. and i think that if you look to 2013, the u.s. will stay strong. i think europe will stay where it was in 2012 and i think that in china, we'll see. >> how are you dealing with the competition from asian telecom equi
now, the imf has suggested france should give itself more leeway to meet deficit targets. the fund's mission chief, edward gardener, said the country's target of 3% gdp was less pressing than cutting excess from public finances. the imf warned against more tax hikes, warning these could further restrict french economic growth. >>> and speaking exclusively to nbc, the ceo of alcatel-lucent says he expects french companies to continue to battle head winds. >> we will improve on...
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and it immediately moved to deficit reduction and how to do it. and that was a very fundamental, important shift in the conversation. >> we have to go, but -- we have to go, but i heard that after the show, sam stein will be on twiner. you can be there, too. >> we can get together. >> we have another important item, though, which is the biggest hurdle arguably to president obama's second term agenda. that's something you're probably never going to hear about, literally. people think of the filibuster as a talk athon to stop action in the senate. but nowadays it has been attacked with a constant extreme of silent filibusters. up next, the talking filibuster ahead live. >>> time for the your business preer oes weeks. amber and mark started north carolina's based footsteps clothing which had a booming christmas themed pajama liven. not wanting to be jump a seasonal line of christmas, they added other opportunities. for more, watch "your business." sunday morning at 7:30 a.m. everyone loves surprise parties. yeah, so last week we had a surprise party
and it immediately moved to deficit reduction and how to do it. and that was a very fundamental, important shift in the conversation. >> we have to go, but -- we have to go, but i heard that after the show, sam stein will be on twiner. you can be there, too. >> we can get together. >> we have another important item, though, which is the biggest hurdle arguably to president obama's second term agenda. that's something you're probably never going to hear about, literally. people...
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i think the words "come together" means something deficit to all of us. in the spirit of the holidays, in an effort to bring all our political leaders, i think "come together" means a lot. >> now, this come together message will go not only on coffee cups in the area but across old and new media. when we sat down and talked to customers here, it really really resonates with what customers want to see done. >> they do need to come together and i think they need to get this settled before we do go off the fiscal cliff because i think a lot of people are really stressed out. >>> think that message "come together" is exactly what needs to happen. i'm frustrated by six, 10 people who think they can hold out to get their last little pork or thing into the bill, that seems unfortunate. >> of course, in the age of social media, in particular, no message of any kind goes untweeted. we did hear from house speaker john boehner's spokesman, brendan buck, who tweeted quote my capitol hill location did not have an inspirational message. i feel so lost. and so it goes.
i think the words "come together" means something deficit to all of us. in the spirit of the holidays, in an effort to bring all our political leaders, i think "come together" means a lot. >> now, this come together message will go not only on coffee cups in the area but across old and new media. when we sat down and talked to customers here, it really really resonates with what customers want to see done. >> they do need to come together and i think they need to...
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several years ago meeting with speaker pelosi, the twin deficit the job and the budget deficit. lori: we don't hear that. we have breaking news. urinalysis is a fascinating. deschutes your analysis is fascinating we want to have you back again. tracy: and 14 major ports that are being threatened to be shut down. we will get the latest. lori: also confidence in the global economy is higher suggesting people are picking up more security. we are back after this. she keeps you guessing. it's part of what you love about her. but your erectile dysfunction - you know, that could be a question of blood flow. cialis tadalafil for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment's right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is the only daily ed tablet approved to treat ed and symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medications, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sexual activity. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, ashis may cause an unsafe drop in bl
several years ago meeting with speaker pelosi, the twin deficit the job and the budget deficit. lori: we don't hear that. we have breaking news. urinalysis is a fascinating. deschutes your analysis is fascinating we want to have you back again. tracy: and 14 major ports that are being threatened to be shut down. we will get the latest. lori: also confidence in the global economy is higher suggesting people are picking up more security. we are back after this. she keeps you guessing. it's part...
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Dec 28, 2012
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a very small amount compared to the $1 trillion budget deficit we have been running. host: you have been quoted as saying -- with the fiscal cliff we will see 1 million job losses. guest: that is the assessment we have been getting from the running of our models. the economy should be expanding to% or 3% next year without the fiscal cliff, that would correlate with about 2 million net new jobs next year. a it's a continuation of steady expansion. i wish it was a little faster expansion, but nonetheless it is an expansion. if we had a fiscal cliff, and we are reversing all the gains we have seen. host: what about mortgage deduction on a second home or vacation home or a certain limit to the size of a mortgage? would you be supportive of that? guest: we have to recognize that negotiating away from what has been a striking departure from just protecting the mortgage interest deduction, property ownership. any breach to that invites further breaches. our members, even though they recognize the deck is a need to be resolved, any breach will lead to further coming back, low
a very small amount compared to the $1 trillion budget deficit we have been running. host: you have been quoted as saying -- with the fiscal cliff we will see 1 million job losses. guest: that is the assessment we have been getting from the running of our models. the economy should be expanding to% or 3% next year without the fiscal cliff, that would correlate with about 2 million net new jobs next year. a it's a continuation of steady expansion. i wish it was a little faster expansion, but...
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the market will turn to a deficit on 2013 in the increasing demand in the auto industry where palladium is used in systems for cars. combined with the global system supply. a rally that began in earnest at the end of 2012 will go into overdrive in the new year. . >> joining us now is dan dickert. you just said palladium. that's a big pick for you? >> i was surprised that sharon spoke about palladium. it was my sleeper bet for 2013. >> what's going on with palladium? >> it's a real industrial metal. it's in short supply. it's undertraded, underowned and one of those industrial metals. it's one of those sleeper metal plays that you can make. used in vehicles? >> in the cat converters. that's the main use for them. there's a real shortage that's been going on in palladium. >> look into the crystal ball. give us an oil price if you came back here a year from today. >> this is the toughest one ever. this is the third year i've conpredictions for you twice. it's not so bad. >> you said it would fluctuate? >> there was one guy who said it would rachet between $130 and $160. i said you have to
the market will turn to a deficit on 2013 in the increasing demand in the auto industry where palladium is used in systems for cars. combined with the global system supply. a rally that began in earnest at the end of 2012 will go into overdrive in the new year. . >> joining us now is dan dickert. you just said palladium. that's a big pick for you? >> i was surprised that sharon spoke about palladium. it was my sleeper bet for 2013. >> what's going on with palladium? >>...
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finance our deficits. and this is precisely how it worked. and the trouble was -- and if you want to understand exactly how the capital gains profits were attracted to the united states -- there are some key elements. one was, the commiseration of blue-collar workers in the united states. there were some key elements. one was the proliferation of states. that kept prices low. even with the oil crisis, prices in the united states rose more slowly than they did in japan or europe. so, if you were japanese or german, the profits, where do you invest them? where do you keep them? you keep them with the low inflation rate. that is one reason. one mechanism that helps attract the capital from the rest of the world and close the loop. wall street was another. it has an amazing capacity to create a metaphysical value out of nothing. walmart was another. is promoted the ideology of cheapness, which was calculated -- encapsulated so brilliantly. nobody needs a gallon of pickles. i don't think it fits in a fridge. wh
finance our deficits. and this is precisely how it worked. and the trouble was -- and if you want to understand exactly how the capital gains profits were attracted to the united states -- there are some key elements. one was, the commiseration of blue-collar workers in the united states. there were some key elements. one was the proliferation of states. that kept prices low. even with the oil crisis, prices in the united states rose more slowly than they did in japan or europe. so, if you were...
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these are people providing us also with the means that float the deficit. these are people that are providing finances and this goes on long enough, they begin to think that. >> who? >> the foreign governments as well as markets. people sitting on enormous treasuries. the question then is they go hold it. if these guys are not serious, why am i depending on them so much? the scary scenario is people say before i continue to float the united states, i want to get a higher return in order to give in to this risk and uncertainty. that is the day the spiral begins because mr. bernanke and col colleagues have to think about raising rates and whether to attract the financing. what is scary about this cliff and the debt ceiling over the next two months to the end of february is for the rest of the world looking at us, we have about two months if not to solve everything, but to get enough ducks lined up that we continue to be at least border line serious. >> talking about border line serious, tim geithner's letter indicating we won't be able to pay our bills, are t
these are people providing us also with the means that float the deficit. these are people that are providing finances and this goes on long enough, they begin to think that. >> who? >> the foreign governments as well as markets. people sitting on enormous treasuries. the question then is they go hold it. if these guys are not serious, why am i depending on them so much? the scary scenario is people say before i continue to float the united states, i want to get a higher return in...
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too much deficit reduction, too quickly, and we could push the economy into a recession. that's just dumb. >> it is very dumb. now, you've been in many, many, many of these negotiations? you've been in the backrooms of a lot of the ongoing negotiations, now, do you think they have any chance of getting a deal before the first of the year? >> i'm always hopeful, but i'm less hopeful as every day passes. the problem is the rhetoric that's flying back and forth between republicans and democrats sounds like we're still having an election that it never was over. i think that now -- now that we've had an election, and the american public has spoken, whatever they meant, it's time for the politicians to get together, come together as starbucks is saying, and get something done. nobody's going to get everything they want. but it's so much more important to solve the problem than for one side or the other to get what they want or blame the other. the atmosphere is just wrong. >> when you hear the argument for going over the cliff. when it's been told to me by both democrats and re
too much deficit reduction, too quickly, and we could push the economy into a recession. that's just dumb. >> it is very dumb. now, you've been in many, many, many of these negotiations? you've been in the backrooms of a lot of the ongoing negotiations, now, do you think they have any chance of getting a deal before the first of the year? >> i'm always hopeful, but i'm less hopeful as every day passes. the problem is the rhetoric that's flying back and forth between republicans and...
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and so the deficit increased rather than declined. so it went from 220 billion in 1990 to 269 billion in 1991, 290 billion in 1992. i think that's directly relevant today because i think the obama tax increases are more likely to lose revenue rather than to gain revenue. for example -- >> clayton: we know what happened with president george h.w. bush, read my lips, no new tax and ended up going forward with some of those tax increases to part of the negotiation and democrats didn't come forward with entitlement cuts that were enough to actually counteract some of those tax increases. could we be seeing the exact same thing today? >> well, yes. for example, one big tax increase in the obama tax increase package is the capital gains tax rate is going to go up 58% on the higher income taxpayers. and so now in the last 50 years, every time the capital gains tax rate has been raised, capital gains revenues have declined rather than increased. and every time the capital gains tax rate has been cut, capital gains revenues increased rather th
and so the deficit increased rather than declined. so it went from 220 billion in 1990 to 269 billion in 1991, 290 billion in 1992. i think that's directly relevant today because i think the obama tax increases are more likely to lose revenue rather than to gain revenue. for example -- >> clayton: we know what happened with president george h.w. bush, read my lips, no new tax and ended up going forward with some of those tax increases to part of the negotiation and democrats didn't come...
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if, we have to do four things if we want to reduce the deficit. we have to get more revenue, we have to cut domestic spending, we have to trim and reform the health care programs in particular of medicare and medicaid and we have to cut defense. if we do all four of those things we can make significant down payment getting deficit under control. if we do some of them, the numbers are not there enough to make as much progress as we want. this is where mark and i agree. over next six to nine months we could see substantial progress towards smart fiscal policy in the country if the two parties come together. heather: we'll see what happens. thank you both very much for joining us until monday night. thank you. >> merry christmas. happy new year. [heavy breathing]. gregg: boy, remember that, video from april of 2011. monster tornado tearing through tuscaloosa, alabama, devastating the community and alberta baptist church. ever since then the church's pastor has been fighting insurers and fema and the city to try to rebuild. this month, finally some mo
if, we have to do four things if we want to reduce the deficit. we have to get more revenue, we have to cut domestic spending, we have to trim and reform the health care programs in particular of medicare and medicaid and we have to cut defense. if we do all four of those things we can make significant down payment getting deficit under control. if we do some of them, the numbers are not there enough to make as much progress as we want. this is where mark and i agree. over next six to nine...
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they say they want deficit reduction. if you go over the cliff, you get deficit reduction, you just don't get it in the responsible, accountable way. it's like chopping off on arm. >> like says i want a shower, i'm going to niagra falls. >> they still can't get it done. we're dysfunctional. no other explanation. >> i think they can stop the roller coaster and make it go. they're doing a dance now because republicans don't want to do something to rates. obama wants to play hardball. but i think they'll have a different argument later in the year. >> i guess both believe it's better to go over the falls than cut a deal that's going to hurt them at home. tea party people don't respond to boehner or to cantor or mccarthy or any of them. somebody in the next tea party is going to be yelling from the back, you sold us out. i think that's why the tea party is never going to be functional. they don't really respond to getting things done. they respond to anger back home. >> i think 2014 democrats are also aware of these tax incre
they say they want deficit reduction. if you go over the cliff, you get deficit reduction, you just don't get it in the responsible, accountable way. it's like chopping off on arm. >> like says i want a shower, i'm going to niagra falls. >> they still can't get it done. we're dysfunctional. no other explanation. >> i think they can stop the roller coaster and make it go. they're doing a dance now because republicans don't want to do something to rates. obama wants to play...
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so all of this takes place against a debate about how to reduce the budget deficit. that's why you get into this theater of the absurd. >> well, and look at the tape you showed at the opening of the program with keith boykin over and over again showing the dysfunction of congress. they made this so onerous with the belief it would make them do something less onerous and now they're right up against it. >> they really know how to make these crises happen. political correspondent and writer, john howard, thank you very much for joining me and former labor secretary robert reich, thank you for joining me tonight. >>> coming up, the nra has done much more damage than you think. and they've made gun ownership much harder to trace. >>> and the romneys keep trying new explanations for why mitt lost. but they aren't getting any closer to the truth. and as some of you on twitter already know, i am wearing a christmas gift or two on the show tonight. there is still time to tweet your guesses about what it is. the answer to what christmas gift or gifts am i wearing is coming up
so all of this takes place against a debate about how to reduce the budget deficit. that's why you get into this theater of the absurd. >> well, and look at the tape you showed at the opening of the program with keith boykin over and over again showing the dysfunction of congress. they made this so onerous with the belief it would make them do something less onerous and now they're right up against it. >> they really know how to make these crises happen. political correspondent and...
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amazon is fighting many deficit fronts, fighting google, netflix, fighting apple. when eventually everything comes home to roost, amazon will have their rollover period. when it gets down to the 218 range, we welcome take some off but i think it will go over and crack the $200 level. >> you wont to go an that one? >> no. i think it could have trouble going forward and perhaps that outage on christmas eve on netflix showed the kink in the armor on their web services. >>> wrapping to the highest level in 21 months, the yen hits mult multilevel lows versus the u.s. dollar. let's bring in kathy. great to have you. nice to see you. >> great to be on. >> certainly is a popular trade these days. is it too crowded and likely tie soon? >> there's your question. well, basically the yen trade is the trade of the year that everyone was calling for in 2013. we've already seen a huge move. so i think that, you know, there's a lot of people who have ran into the trade over the past month. i think that, you know, while there's still fundamental reasons for the dollar yen to move h
amazon is fighting many deficit fronts, fighting google, netflix, fighting apple. when eventually everything comes home to roost, amazon will have their rollover period. when it gets down to the 218 range, we welcome take some off but i think it will go over and crack the $200 level. >> you wont to go an that one? >> no. i think it could have trouble going forward and perhaps that outage on christmas eve on netflix showed the kink in the armor on their web services. >>>...
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if we have normal economy we would have 500 billion more in revenue today which would cut the deficit by 40 or 50%. that does it. >> what is the most we can hope for from these guys? they will work over the new year's holiday. i know what you want. you want a flat tax. i know your wish-list but what is the best we can hope for? >> best we can hope for they all realize they will all get the blame. for once, kick the can down the road. you will not reform the tax code in 72 hours between now and new year's. entitle manlts and everything else. put it off for 60 days. begin to do real reformation of the tax code. to allow us to go off the fiscal cliff is preposterous. david: when you say a 60-day hold does that mean the president, the president says we should at least make sure taxes for those making under $200,000 doesn't go up but everybody else's taxes should go up. >> they should put everything off 60 to 90 days and sit down after new year's and say how we get the economy moving again? i think it will be clear early next year we're starting to slow down. republicans should hammer home
if we have normal economy we would have 500 billion more in revenue today which would cut the deficit by 40 or 50%. that does it. >> what is the most we can hope for from these guys? they will work over the new year's holiday. i know what you want. you want a flat tax. i know your wish-list but what is the best we can hope for? >> best we can hope for they all realize they will all get the blame. for once, kick the can down the road. you will not reform the tax code in 72 hours...
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the market will turn to a deficit in 2013 on increasing demand in the auto industry where palladium is used in exhaust systems for cars. combined with decreasing global supply, especially in south africa and russia, which control a number of the world's palladium mines, a rally that began in earnest in 2012 will go into overdrive in the new year. >>> all right. so then how should you play commodities next year? let us bring in rbc's george gero with his take on gold, silver and copper, and andy lit li lithbm. silver kicked butt. will it do so next year? >> i think so. i'm wearing my silver bullish cuff links if you notice that. i think this is the year for silver. silver is a bridge between investment demand and industrial demand and this year i think we're going to have both. >> how high do you see silver going, george? give us a number. >> i can't give you a specific number, but i'll give you a range of somewhere between oh, 40 to $45. >> okay. and that's your number one pick for next year, george. andy, you're over in the energy patch. what do you see for crude, gnna gas and for wha
the market will turn to a deficit in 2013 on increasing demand in the auto industry where palladium is used in exhaust systems for cars. combined with decreasing global supply, especially in south africa and russia, which control a number of the world's palladium mines, a rally that began in earnest in 2012 will go into overdrive in the new year. >>> all right. so then how should you play commodities next year? let us bring in rbc's george gero with his take on gold, silver and copper,...
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that's a healthy start but such a baby step when you're debading $100 billion out of a $1.3 trillion deficit. that's not draconian, that's not even that serious. >> warner: let me ask you this. the tea party has been since its -- at least inception when it burst on the national scene in '09 against the obama health care plan. been very vocal, had rallies and protests voiced its view and put pressure on lawmakers. they have not done that this -- in this go-round. there's no rallies calling on members of congress to stand firm against any compromise. what what explains that? >> i think it's a seshl movement and it's evolved dramatically from those protests in 2009. we were involved in those and those were very important at that time. you're seeing an evolution in developing sophistication at the very local level amongst activists. they're very aware of what's going on on the fiscal cliff. they're very aware of what a budget resolution is and you see that pressure applied to both republicans and democrats. >> warner: quietly. >> well, we're not a protest movement anymore. we're something else.
that's a healthy start but such a baby step when you're debading $100 billion out of a $1.3 trillion deficit. that's not draconian, that's not even that serious. >> warner: let me ask you this. the tea party has been since its -- at least inception when it burst on the national scene in '09 against the obama health care plan. been very vocal, had rallies and protests voiced its view and put pressure on lawmakers. they have not done that this -- in this go-round. there's no rallies calling...